Illinois St.

Conference:	MVC
Expected RPI:	85.0
Current RPI:	85
Expected SOS:	55
Current SOS:	55
Current Record:	17-15
Expected Record:	17-15
Current Conf Record:	12-9
Expected Conf Record:	12-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	11-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	1-1
Current OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC RPI:	84
Expected OOC SOS:	12

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-15	85.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	A	98-87	L	0%
11-16	South Carolina (90.0)	SEC	N	65-69	W	100%
11-17	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	N	82-64	L	0%
11-19	Tulsa (89.0)	Amer	N	68-84	W	100%
11-25	Charleston Southern (261.0)	BSth	H	62-64	L	0%
11-29	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	A	98-68	L	0%
12-2	Tulsa (89.0)	Amer	H	65-58	W	100%
12-6	BYU (67.0)	WCC	A	80-68	L	0%
12-9	Murray St. (48.0)	OVC	H	72-78	L	0%
12-16	Mississippi (141.0)	SEC	A	97-101	W	100%
12-19	Illinois Chicago (236.0)	Horz	H	71-70	W	100%
12-23	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	A	66-72	W	100%
12-31	Indiana St. (184.0)	MVC	H	84-81	W	100%
1-3	Drake (166.0)	MVC	A	87-62	L	0%
1-7	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	H	72-68	W	100%
1-10	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	H	61-68	L	0%
1-13	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	A	74-70	L	0%
1-17	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	H	70-57	W	100%
1-20	Indiana St. (184.0)	MVC	A	84-54	L	0%
1-24	Northern Iowa (138.0)	MVC	A	83-72	L	0%
1-27	Valparaiso (188.0)	MVC	H	76-65	W	100%
1-30	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	A	60-76	W	100%
2-3	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	H	75-71	W	100%
2-8	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	H	76-68	W	100%
2-11	Valparaiso (188.0)	MVC	A	74-58	L	0%
2-14	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	A	70-58	L	0%
2-17	Northern Iowa (138.0)	MVC	H	79-75	W	100%
2-21	Drake (166.0)	MVC	H	89-81	W	100%
2-24	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	A	68-61	L	0%
3-2	Indiana St. (184.0)	MVC	N	77-70	W	100%
3-3	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	N	68-76	W	100%
3-4	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	N	65-49	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Illinois St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Illinois St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Illinois St.	MVC	26.62	26.62	53.79	53.79	2.02	2.02
Loyola Chicago	MVC	5.76	5.76	82.76	82.76	3.77	3.77
Southern Illinois	MVC	5.70	5.70	62.07	62.07	1.38	1.38
Indiana St.	MVC	5.59	5.59	38.46	38.46	-1.29	-1.29
Bradley	MVC	4.24	4.24	60.00	60.00	0.85	0.85
Missouri St.	MVC	4.22	4.22	56.67	56.67	0.56	0.56
Northern Iowa	MVC	4.21	4.21	46.43	46.43	-0.30	-0.30
Drake	MVC	4.14	4.14	48.28	48.28	-0.14	-0.14
Evansville	MVC	4.14	4.14	53.57	53.57	0.30	0.30
Valparaiso	MVC	4.13	4.13	42.86	42.86	-0.59	-0.59
Tulsa	Amer	3.12	3.12	65.52	65.52	0.97	0.97
Nevada	MWC	1.69	1.69	78.79	78.79	0.97	0.97
Boise St.	MWC	1.68	1.68	72.41	72.41	0.75	0.75
Mississippi	SEC	1.66	1.66	38.71	38.71	-0.37	-0.37
Illinois Chicago	Horz	1.64	1.64	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Murray St.	OVC	1.64	1.64	82.14	82.14	1.05	1.05
South Carolina	SEC	1.61	1.61	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
BYU	WCC	1.56	1.56	69.70	69.70	0.62	0.62
Charleston Southern	BSth	1.56	1.56	40.74	40.74	-0.29	-0.29
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	1.56	1.56	63.33	63.33	0.42	0.42
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.23	0.23	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.21	0.21	78.12	78.12	0.12	0.12
Wright St.	Horz	0.20	0.20	71.88	71.88	0.09	0.09
Utah St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.18	0.18	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
UNLV	MWC	0.17	0.17	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.17	0.17	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.17	0.17	67.74	67.74	0.06	0.06
Air Force	MWC	0.16	0.16	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Milwaukee	Horz	0.15	0.15	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.15	0.15	3.33	3.33	-0.14	-0.14
Memphis	Amer	0.15	0.15	61.76	61.76	0.04	0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Florida	SEC	0.15	0.15	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
San Jose St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	10.34	10.34	-0.12	-0.12
Ball St.	MAC	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Green Bay	Horz	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.13	0.13	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Winthrop	BSth	0.13	0.13	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
SMU	Amer	0.13	0.13	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Kent St.	MAC	0.13	0.13	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.13	0.13	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Temple	Amer	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.12	0.12	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Fresno St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.12	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
Santa Clara	WCC	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.10	10.71	10.71	-0.08	-0.08
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.10	0.10	76.67	76.67	0.05	0.05
IUPUI	Horz	0.10	0.10	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Connecticut	Amer	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
South Florida	Amer	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Tulane	Amer	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Georgia Southern	SB	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	12.50	12.50	-0.07	-0.07
Presbyterian	BSth	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Elon	CAA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Radford	BSth	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.07	0.07	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Pacific	WCC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.07	0.07	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
San Diego	WCC	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UTEP	CUSA	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
NJIT	ASun	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
VMI	SC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.02	0.02	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Idaho	BSky	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
TCU	B12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	WAC	0.02	0.02	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01